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There simply isn’t enough time to continue running and maintaining it going forward.
Deep appreciation to everyone who supported the project, trusted the work, and used the cards as part of their play. What was built here mattered — and every single player who was part of it is appreciated.
Handicapping and card posting will continue until the final active memberships expire. Nothing changes for current members — everything paid for will be delivered through the end.
Many have asked about continuing to pay or extending memberships. I appreciate that more than you know, but I’m not reopening payments. As the site winds down, adding new billing, tracking timelines, and managing access fairly becomes more complicated than it may seem. The focus now is simple — finish strong and make sure every current member gets exactly what they paid for through the end.
I’ll try my best to put some free picks up daily until the last membership expires. I’ll also try to add Aqueduct and Turfway selections as time allows.
B: 5P (7/2) • 6P (3/1)
Ugly maiden race. The PPs may not make this obvious, but the 5 may be the horse that gets to the front. He has a slight pace edge and could get brave if left alone early. It’s probably 50/50 whether he can hold that advantage to the wire, especially with the long Fair Grounds stretch, which tends to expose horses that aren’t fully fit.
That scenario makes the race more likely to collapse late. The 3 and 6 profile as the most reliable finishers if the pace softens at all, and either fits best if the race is run honestly.
B: 4SP (3/1) • 1S (4/1)
C: 6S (9/1)
The top three are tightly matched on paper, and the pace setup likely comes back slow to moderate. That gives positional runners an advantage turning for home, but also keeps the race compact enough for a closer to impact late.
The 6 is the wildcard. If unexpected pressure develops up front, he has the late energy profile to make this interesting at a price.
I’d prefer to play this race through the 3 or 4 at fair odds. Both fit the projected flow best and offer the most balanced profiles.
B: 6P (5/1)
C: 4E (7/1)
The 1 is a deserving favorite and the most likely winner, but he offers zero value and could be bet down to pennies.
The 4 can make the race interesting and, at the very least, may hang around for a piece at a price. Worth considering as a small longshot wager.
Or play a cheap super if the tote makes sense:
1/6,4/6,4,3,5/3,5
Thank you again for the support, the conversations, and the trust over the years.
— Freddie Fractions
An in-depth Kentucky Derby Playbook will be released come Derby time — built the same way the cards always were: structured, disciplined, and designed for serious players.
This will be the most in-depth, metric-driven Derby guide produced — a full breakdown rooted in pace, energy, class, and race-shape analysis, not opinion.
Check back here, and reminder emails will be sent when it’s ready.
- Pedigree analysis
- Fractional breakdowns
- Energy distribution metrics
- Pace maps and race-flow projections
- Pick 5 / sequence structure
- Fair odds and contender tiers
- Key notes and situational angles
The goal is simple — one complete, data-driven playbook with every piece of information needed to attack the biggest race days of the year.
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