How to Read and Use Smart Horse Picks Race Cards
Everything you need to understand our ABC rankings, pace projections, key horses, and fair odds—so you can bet with clarity and confidence.
A Horses
Your primary win contenders. These are the runners who either project as the strongest overall fits for today’s pace, class, and form profile or offer meaningful betting value—especially when you think the public may ignore them. They are not always the morning-line favorite; in fact, many of your A horses will be prices the crowd is sleeping on.
B Horses
Reliable contenders with a high probability of running well. B horses are the ones you expect to be very live to hit the board and act as backup win candidates behind your A’s. They’re often the glue that holds smart vertical and horizontal tickets together.
C Horses
Horses who need more things to go right—but if the race shape cooperates, they’re absolutely capable. They aren’t always longshots; often they’re pace-compromised types, inconsistent runners, or simply not as strong in confidence or value as your A and B groups. You don’t lean on them, but you don’t ignore them when the price and setup make sense.
Likely 1st Call Leader
The horse that has a good chance at securing the lead at the opening fractions based on early pace figures and positional tendencies. This helps you quickly see who is most likely to be in control early.
Notes
This is where the key betting thoughts live—what I’ll be watching when deciding whether to fire or pass. You might see comments on pace setup, vulnerable favorites, live longshots, bias concerns, surface changes, or trip angles. Sometimes the note will simply read “Pass” or “Hard Pass” when the race doesn’t offer a worthwhile edge.
Fair Odds
Your true-value line—the minimum price you’d need to back each horse. I’m not able to update these in real time, but daily track bias or changing track conditions can occasionally alter value assessments. Use this section as your anchor for determining whether a horse is an overlay (value) or an underlay (too short to bother with).
SAMPLE CARD
Weekend-Only Features: Key Horses & Pace Projections
On Saturdays and Sundays, your cards include two powerful additions designed to sharpen your wagering decisions:
Key Horse
These are standout runners identified through pace, form, energy distribution, and class factors. Since March, Key Horses have hit the board between 75% and 83% of the time, making them excellent anchors for Win bets, Exactas, Doubles, Pick 3s, and especially multi-race spread structures. They are highlighted in green for easy visibility on your card.
Pace Projection (1–5 Scale)
Saturday and Sunday cards also include a pace-flow projection for the race. This is a quick-look rating from 1 (slow) to 5 (fast), based on the makeup of the field, Quirin Speed Points, and early energy distribution. Higher numbers indicate a race more likely to feature pace pressure up front and favor off-pace runners.
1st Call Projection
A simple, visual indicator of which horses are most likely to be on or near the lead by the first call. This helps you quickly understand the expected race shape and whether a horse’s running style fits the projected flow.
Unless you’ve found another, this is the best
ABC ticket generator I’ve come across, and it’s the same style
you’ll see in the screenshots on my cards whenever I include Pick 4 or Pick 5
spread tickets:
https://ticketmaker.rolledaces.com/
Looking for more tools? Visit our Handicapping Tools.
Typically up by Thursday night, don't forget to check out our Race of the Week.