How to Use Our Cards

Each SmartHorsePicks.com card is built using modern pace handicapping principles, designed to help you understand how a race is likely to unfold—and which horses are best positioned to benefit. Below is a breakdown of what you’ll find on every card, including pace projections, ABC rankings, Key Horses, and track bias notes—plus a real card example and answers to common questions.

ABC Rankings Explained

Our cards use a simple but powerful ABC system to help you build smarter tickets, especially in multi-race wagers. Each letter reflects a combination of form, pace setup, and price value—not just raw ability.

• A Horses: Strong win contenders with both form and pace setup in their favor—often paired with an attractive morning line price.
• B Horses: Legitimate win threats or reliable underneath players. These may have minor question marks (price, pace, or trip) but are dangerous.
• C Horses: These horses can surprise if things break their way. They might benefit from a projected meltdown or get a perfect trip. Sometimes they’re solid runners simply offering no value—or a very attractive price that justifies including them despite concerns.

This structure is ideal for players using weighted multi-race ticket strategies (like ABC ticket construction), helping you bet smarter, not broader.

How to Read Pace Projections

On Friday–Sunday cards, each race includes a pace projection based on internal fractions, running style profiles, and Quirin-style pace pressure metrics.

You’ll see two things:

• A pace pressure rating from 1 to 5, indicating how hot or contested the early pace is expected to be:
  • 1 = Very soft (possible lone speed)
  • 5 = Extremely fast (major duel or meltdown likely)
• A projected 1/4-mile (first call) running order, showing who is expected to be in front early and where others will be positioned behind them.

Key Horses (Highlighted in Pink)

On Friday–Sunday cards, certain horses are highlighted in pink to indicate a particularly strong fit for today’s race shape.

These Key Horses combine solid form with a favorable pace setup—and they’ve hit the board at an 80–85% clip since March.

They’re often ideal anchors in vertical bets like exactas and trifectas, or in horizontal wagers where consistency and trip advantage matter most.

Surface & Track Bias Notes

Cards are almost always updated following scratches, off-the-turf changes, or wet-track adjustments. Occasionally, time constraints prevent day-of edits—but more often than not, we readjust projections to match updated track conditions.

Every premium card includes updated track bias statistics: a breakdown of winning post positions and pace position tendencies by distance and surface. This data is updated weekly—unless no meaningful changes in bias are observed.

Sample Race Card

A sample card will be displayed here soon to help you visualize how all the above elements work together.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if a horse is scratched?

When key contenders scratch, pace shape and value can shift. We update cards when time allows, especially for major races and Friday–Sunday slates. Use our notes and pace projections as guides—then adjust your plays accordingly after scratches are known.

How are updates handled?

Major scratches, surface changes, and wet track shifts often trigger a revised version of the card. Keep an eye on your inbox and check the file timestamp. We’ll always try to reflect meaningful changes.

How often are track bias stats updated?

Track stats (post position and pace position winners) are updated weekly on all premium cards—unless no meaningful changes in bias have been observed. We aim to reflect current conditions without overreacting to short-term noise.