Pace Handicapping in Horse Racing: Why It Works and How to Use It

Horse Racing Running Styles Explained: Early Speed, Closers, and Everything In Between

Every horse has a preferred way of running. Some want the lead as soon as the gate opens. Others are more comfortable stalking or sitting midpack. And some just wait to make one big run late.

Understanding these running styles is essential to projecting pace—and to identifying which horses are set up to succeed in today’s race shape.

E (Early): Front-runners. Need or want the lead. Typically show high early speed and low late pace. Vulnerable if they don’t get a clear lead.
EP (Early Presser): Tactical speed types. Can lead or press just off the pace. Often get first run when the leaders tire.
P (Presser): Sit just behind the leaders—often 1–3 lengths back early. Must stay in range and have enough punch late.
SP (Sustained Presser): Midpack runners who make one run. More pace-dependent than the above.
S (Sustained Closer): Drop back early and rely on pace collapse. Need a strong flow up front to be effective.

Pro tip: Horses don’t always run the same way every time—but most have a preferred pattern. Knowing that style helps anticipate who’s likely to be where at the first call.

Something we look for: What we call a swing horse—a runner who’s shown the ability to win or hit the board from different pace setups and trip types. These are excellent candidates for exotic tickets, especially when others are pace-compromised.

How Pace Scenarios Shape Horse Races: Lone Speed, Duels, and Flow

The way a race unfolds early—its pace scenario—often determines who has a real chance at the wire. Understanding these common setups can help you anticipate which horses will be helped or hurt by the flow.

Lone Speed (Soft Pace)

One of the strongest handicapping angles. When no other horse challenges for the front, the leader can control the tempo and conserve energy. These horses often wire the field—or at the very least hang on for a piece—even if they don’t look best on paper.

On our cards, a lone speed scenario will be clearly noted in the pace commentary.

Speed Duel (Hot Pace)

When multiple horses have a need for the lead, things can get ugly. Fast early fractions usually mean tired horses late. These races often collapse and set up for a closer or off-the-pace type—especially at longer distances or on tiring tracks.

Honest or Moderate Pace

This occurs when there’s some early pressure, but not enough to cause a meltdown. Maybe one horse is pressing the leader without forcing an all-out duel. In this scenario, tactical horses—those sitting just behind the speed—often get the first run on the turn and prove tough to catch.

This is the ideal setup for a swing horse—one who can adjust and take advantage of multiple race flows.

How to Project Pace in Horse Racing: A Step-by-Step Guide

Once you understand running styles, the next step is figuring out how the early stages of a particular race are likely to unfold. This is where manual pace projection comes in—a process of reading past performances to predict where each horse will be positioned and how fast they'll go to get there.

You’re not just asking who’s fastest—you’re asking:

Who wants the front?
Who needs the front?
Who is likely to get the front, given today’s field?

This step is just as much about intent as it is ability. Some horses can go fast early—but don’t always try to. Others insist on being involved every time. Understanding that nuance is key.

Here’s a systematic approach to projecting the pace:

Review the last few races for each horse, paying attention to position and early fractions.
Note any changes in distance, surface, class, or jockey that might impact early effort.
Match horses up against each other and see who has shown the ability and desire to lead or press.
Use your judgment to anticipate how today’s field will interact at the first call.

On our cards: From Friday through Sunday, we include a ¼-mile call projection in each race summary to help visualize the early pace scenario.

Quirin Speed Points in Horse Racing: How to Measure Early Speed

Quirin Speed Points (QSP) are a simple yet powerful way to assess how aggressively a horse has been positioned early in recent starts. The scale runs from 0 to 8, based on how often a horse is on or near the lead at the first call over its last three starts.

7–8: True front-runners. Expect them to go right to the lead.
4–6: Tactical types. Can press or stalk depending on the setup.
0–3: Sustained runners. Rarely show early speed and usually drop back.

Quick tip: Add up the QSP for the entire field. It gives a rough idea of how much early pressure there may be.

21 or more: Blazing pace likely.
18–20: Fast or contested early fractions.
15–17: Moderate pace.
Under 15: Likely soft pace—possible lone speed.

This is just one tool, but when combined with form analysis and running style, it’s a reliable way to identify potential blowouts—or slow setups that hand an edge to one horse.

How to Read BRIS Pace Figures: E1, E2, and LP Breakdown

BRIS pace figures break down a horse’s performance into segments of the race—giving you a look at how fast they ran early, middle, and late. Each number is adjusted for track variant and class, making it easy to compare horses across races and circuits.

E1 (Early Pace): Speed to the first call—usually around the 2-furlong or quarter-mile mark. Reflects a horse’s early foot.
E2 (Middle Pace): Speed to the second call—around the half-mile to 6-furlong mark. Shows sustained early speed.
LP (Late Pace): Reflects closing ability—the final segment of the race.

What to look for:

Horses with high E1 and E2 figures are usually front-runners or pressers.
Horses with low E1/E2 but high LP are deep closers.
A balanced E2/LP combo often indicates a tactical or “swing” horse.

You can also spot “pace meltdowns” by looking for a field full of E1/E2-heavy horses with little LP support. That’s a setup where one strong closer can blow past a tired field late.

Energy Distribution and Turn Time in Horse Racing: How Horses Use Their Run

Energy distribution metrics help you understand how a horse uses its energy throughout the race. Some horses burn early and fade. Others finish strong after saving ground. Knowing this pattern is critical when projecting how they’ll fit in today’s race flow.

Hidden Energy and Velocity-Based Metrics provide deeper insight into how efficiently a horse travels through each stage of a race. These include:

F1 / F2 / F3: Velocities (in feet per second) for the first, second, and final race segments.
Hidden Energy: Average of F2 and F3—reveals sustained ability after the break.
FX (Factor X): Average of F1 and F3—helps evaluate balance between speed and finish.
%Med (Percentage Median): (F1 + F2) ÷ (F1 + F2 + F3)—indicates energy distribution pattern (early vs. late use).
SC: Second call or early pace velocity.
TS: Total speed—velocity for the entire race.
DCL: Deceleration rating—F3 ÷ SC, shows how much late energy remains.
Total Energy: Sum of all three fractions (F1 + F2 + F3).

These numbers are especially useful when evaluating off-the-pace types, wide trips, or horses exiting biased races. They help uncover hidden movers that traditional figures may overlook.

Turn Time

Turn time covers the portion of the race from the second to third call—usually the far turn. Horses with strong turn time often separate from the field before the stretch and are dangerous if the leaders start to weaken.

There are several ways to calculate turn time, depending on your data source and preference:

Simple method: E2 − E1 (middle pace minus early pace). This is the most direct and widely used approach.
BRIS sprint formula: (E2 × 4 − E1 × 2) ÷ 2
BRIS route formula: (E2 × 6 − E1 × 4) ÷ 2
Normalized method: Compare to par figures:
Turn Time Fig = (E2 − AE2) − (E1 − AE1) where AE1 and AE2 are average pace figures for that race type.

While some prefer the advanced formulas, the E2 − E1 method often gives the clearest indication of a horse's ability to accelerate into the turn and sustain their run.

On turf especially, these numbers are critical. Late runners with strong turn time or hidden energy can blow past horses that look better on traditional speed figures. In turf sprints, turn time can often be the difference between winning and finishing fifth.

Surface and Distance Dynamics: How Dirt and Turf Races Shape Pace Outcomes

Not all surfaces reward pace in the same way. Dirt and turf races behave very differently—and distance plays a big role too. Understanding these dynamics can help explain why some horses consistently fire or flop based on the race type.

Dirt Races

Dirt tracks tend to favor horses with early speed or tactical positioning. Because dirt kicks back and is harder to close over, it's tough for deep closers to make up ground unless there’s a major pace meltdown.

Sprints (5f – 7f): Usually won by early speed or pressers. Horses near the lead at the first call have a big edge.
Routes (1 mile and up): Still favor forward placement, but there's more time for a sustained move. Tactical speed remains a major advantage.

Turf Races

Turf favors patience, rhythm, and acceleration. Many turf winners are midpack or late runners with strong finish kicks, especially when the pace is honest. Horses that rate and finish often outperform those who try to wire.

Turf Routes: Setup is key. If the pace is soft, an EP or lone speed can take them all the way. If fast, expect a closer to storm home late.
Turf Sprints: Turn time is crucial. Horses who can accelerate sharply on the bend often gain separation that holds to the wire.

Note: Energy distribution and turn time analysis are especially important on turf, where late pace matters more than early aggression.

Track Configurations and Stretch Runs: How Course Layout Impacts Race Shape

The shape and layout of a racetrack—especially the length of the stretch run—can have a big impact on how races unfold. Tracks with shorter stretch runs tend to favor horses that are on or near the lead turning for home, while longer stretches give closers more time to get up.

Below are examples of major tracks ordered from shortest to longest stretch runs on the main dirt oval:

Gulfstream Park: 898 feet
Del Mar: 919 feet
Turfway Park: 970 feet
Tampa Bay Downs: 976 feet
Monmouth Park: 990 feet
Santa Anita Park: 990 feet
Belmont Park: 1,097 feet
Arlington Park: 1,049 feet
Saratoga: 1,144 feet
Pimlico: 1,152 feet
Aqueduct: 1,155 feet
Oaklawn Park: 1,155 feet
Keeneland: 1,174 feet
Churchill Downs: 1,234 feet
Fair Grounds: 1,346 feet

Takeaway: At short-stretch tracks like Gulfstream, Del Mar, and Monmouth, it's harder for deep closers to win unless the race totally collapses. At Fair Grounds or Churchill, there's more runway to get up late.

How We Apply Pace Handicapping in Real Races

Pace analysis is the foundation of everything we do. When a horse appears particularly well-suited—or poorly matched—to the projected race shape, you’ll see a brief, clearly highlighted note beneath that horse’s summary on our cards.

We don’t guess—we let the flow of the race guide the way.

Pace Handicapping Tips