SmartHorsePicks Bankroll Management Guide
Bankroll management is the backbone of long-term horse racing success. You can handicap well, but without discipline, it won’t matter. At SmartHorsePicks, the approach is simple: bet conservatively, bet with discipline, bet only when value exists.
The SHP 2.5% Rule
Many bettors suggest wagering 5% of your bankroll per race. I disagree. Outside of major days like the Derby or Breeders’ Cup, I stick strictly to a 2.5% rule. It may seem slow if your bankroll is small, but if you lose the roll quickly, you’ll never see a big score. Longevity is everything.
Even as my bankroll has grown significantly over the years, I still follow the same 2.5% rule—and always will. The bankroll changes; the discipline does not. Professionals lose more bets than they win. But with proper discipline, spotting value, and refusing to bet bad prices, long-term success increases dramatically.
The Purpose of a Bankroll
A bankroll isn’t a lottery ticket—it’s long-term fuel. Emotional betting drains it; disciplined betting stretches it. The goal is simple: still have money when your best opportunities arrive.
Pass More Races Than You Bet
Some cards look playable from top to bottom; others barely offer one good race. Knowing when to pass is one of the most important skills a bettor can learn. You don’t profit by betting everything—you profit by betting when the value is right.
Win Wagers: The Core of Smart Betting
About 80% of my bets are win wagers, and only when I'm getting fair odds or better. Win betting is clean and honest: your opinion vs. the board.
I almost never give a horse more than a 50% chance of winning. Favorites win roughly 30–35% of the time, and that number has remained stable for decades. Even the 2nd choice wins only 21.6% of the time.
| Odds Rank | Win Percentage |
|---|---|
| 1st Choice (Favorite) | 36.2% |
| 2nd Choice | 21.6% |
| 3rd Choice | 14.5% |
| 4th Choice | 10.3% |
| 5th Choice | 7.6% |
| 6th Choice | 4.8% |
| 7th Choice | 3.2% |
| 8th Choice | 2.5% |
This is why you will rarely see fair odds below 2/1 on my cards. The horse must truly earn it. If the value isn’t there, I don’t bet—no matter how much I like the horse.
Place & Show Betting: The Underrated Tools
Many younger bettors ignore place and show wagers. They shouldn’t. They make up a small percentage of my action, but they’re sometimes the smartest bets on the card. If the public overlooks a 15/1+ horse and I believe they have a better chance than the board suggests—but not necessarily a winning chance—that’s a place or show play.
Tracks like Kentucky Downs and Turfway Park offer especially strong place/show opportunities. When the public misprices a horse, you don’t always need the win to win.
Dutch Betting: Splitting Strong Opinions
When two horses offer real value, I’ll split my win bet—typically an 80/20 split. If the odds gap is large, I may adjust the ratio. Dutching also provides a key psychological benefit: no more “I liked that one too…” frustration.
Multi-Race Wagering: My Rarest Wagers
I bet multi-race sequences less than anything else—except on major days with massive pools. Otherwise, I stay strict:
1. Use Very Few Horses
If I need six horses in a leg, I shouldn’t be playing the sequence.
2. Spread Only on Dedicated Spread Tickets
I never mix hesitation with confidence. Spreads belong on spread tickets only.
3. Daily Doubles Are the Main Multi-Race Bet
I refuse to use more than three total horses across both legs. No conviction = no bet.
ABC Handicapping
ABC structure is included on every SHP card because it's the only disciplined, logical way to attack multi-race wagers. A’s are your strongest opinions, B’s are solid backups, and C’s are chaos savers. ABC prevents caveman tickets and keeps wagers efficient.
Click here to learn more about ABC Handicapping
Handling Losing Streaks
Everyone hits losing streaks. Winners and quitters are separated by how they respond.
1. Tighten Unit Size
Drop from 2.5% to 1.5% or less during a slump.
2. Bet Fewer Races
Slumps require contraction, not expansion.
3. Return to Win Bets Only
Win bets reset discipline and confidence.
4. Review Opinions, Not Just Outcomes
Separate bad handicapping from bad luck.
5. Accept Variance
Bad beats are part of racing—not signals to fire wildly.
Never Chase Losses
Chasing losses destroys bankrolls. If you stick to the 2.5% rule, losses barely dent your roll and barely affect you mentally. Stay patient and conservative.
Play the Tracks You See Clearly
Every bettor naturally sees certain tracks more clearly than others. If you consistently read one circuit well, focus your action there. Your bankroll will reflect it.